He said that although none of those reactors were the same model as those at Chernobyl, some are older Soviet light-water reactors that wouldn’t be as resistant to an attack as the plant at Zaporizhzhia.The Zaporizhzhia power plant is under Russian military control. So, they’re away from the front, but they’re still within range of Russian rocket fire or drones,” said Lyman. “There are three other nuclear plants in Ukraine that are closer to the western border. That makes them even more susceptible to catastrophic failure in the event of an accident. Zaporizhzhia drew a lot of attention when it came under direct Russian control.īut Lyman said he was also concerned about the other plants in Ukraine, including the inactive one at Chernobyl and three other active sites, which are older than Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine’s other reactors also present a risk “There would probably be measurable impacts, but not as great as what was experienced in 1986.” “I think the likelihood of another Chernobyl-like event affecting Germany is lower,” he said. In a situation like that, the severity of any consequences would probably fall somewhere in between that of what happened at Chernobyl and what happened at Fukushima, he said. Lyman added that the level of radiation a potential accident at Zaporizhzhia could release would depend on whether the accident was technical, such as a response to the facility losing power for multiple days, or otherwise related to combat, in which case the radiation would be released more quickly. But still, you would expect probably less radioactive material released and dispersed less widely,” Lyman said. “Zaporizhzhia is landlocked, so that wouldn’t be the case. Today, researchers say the Fukushima incident has left only a negligible mark on the surrounding environment, because much of the radiation was released into the nearby sea. Aside from radiation sickness experienced by people in the direct vicinity, they say, the biggest health impact has been the psychological stress people nearby experienced when they were evacuated. Official reports have concluded that although many people died in the tsunami and earthquake, none died in direct response to the nuclear incident. It was generated by a powerful tsunami and earthquake that caused the plant to lose power, prompting three nuclear meltdowns, hydrogen explosions and extensive releases of radiation from the facility. The nuclear accident in Fukushima marks the only other disaster at a plant that has been rated a ‘seven’ on the IAEA’s International Nuclear Event Scale. “The consequences that led to such a large and wide dispersal of radioactive activity are probably less likely to occur at the reactors at Zaporizhzhia, which are light water reactors more similar to the reactors in Germany or elsewhere in the West,” he said. Lyman said any fallout from a possible accident at the Zaporizhzhia power plant would likely have more in common with the fallout from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. Reports on the disaster’s health impact also note high rates of depression and anxiety in the surrounding population. And nearly 20 years later, there hasn’t been any comprehensive follow-up to these reports. However, according to Lyman, the large studies outlining overall cancer risk were published in the early 2000s, at a time when many cancers that could have been triggered by the Chernobyl disaster may not yet have started showing up. In the next article in this series, we explain the health effects linked to the detonation of nuclear weapons at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and also look at what could happen if nuclear weapons were detonated in today’s world. When people think about nuclear threats and the war in Ukraine, most consider two possibilities: What would happen if an accident occurred at a Ukrainian nuclear plant? And what would happen if a nuclear weapon were deployed?įor this article, we talked to experts about the health impact the Fukushima and Chernobyl disasters had on surrounding populations, and asked them to explain the degree to which those disasters might provide a framework for our current understanding of risk at Zaporizhzhia. Nuclear poses two threats in the Russia- Ukraine war And if we allow this to continue time after time, then one day our luck will run out.” Grossi was reported as having told the IAEA’s Board of Governors on Thursday: “Each time we are rolling a dice.
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